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seasonalitytính mùa vụtính thời vụ
Acharacteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular và predictable changes which recur every calendar year. Any predictable change or pattern in a time series that recurs or repeats over a one-year period can be said to be seasonal.Note that seasonal effects are different from cyclical effects, as seasonal cycles are contained within one calendar year, while cyclical effects (such as boosted sales due to lớn low unemployment rates) can span time periods shorter or longer than one calendar year.
Seasonality can be seen in many time series, and it"s more common than you might think. For example, if you live in aclimate with cold winters and warm summers, your home"s heating costs probably rise in the winter và fall in the summer. You would reasonably expect the seasonality of your heating costs to lớn recur every year. Similarly, a company that sells sunscreen & tanning products would see sales jump up in the summer, butdrop in the winter. Companies that understand the seasonality of their business can time inventories, staffing and other decisions to lớn coincide with the expected seasonality.It"s important lớn remember the effects of seasonality when analyzing stocks from a fundamental point of view. For example, if you assumed a sunscreen company was going khổng lồ earn as much in the next three quarters as it did during the recent summer quarter, your earnings estimates would likely be way off the mark!
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Business CycleBusiness Cycle Indicators - BCIContractionExpansionHeteroskedasticityPeakTime SeriesTrough